The Future Is Here! The Future Is Now. Buckle Up!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared
and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998
that 3 years later you would never take pictures using film again?
Digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000
pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few
short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and
jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the
Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel
company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers
already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal
advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90%
accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you
study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the
future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses
diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook
now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better
than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than
humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will
never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change
the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can
transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each
year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every
100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in
10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies
try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech
companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach
and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from
Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Your driverless car will let you work while
you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all cars will run on electric.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production
has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now
see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide
than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal
companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination
now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in
most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be
possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for
nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will
be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder"
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina
scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54
biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so
in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class
medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times
faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare
airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large
amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey
office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will
be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work
with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in
the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field
instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much
less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and
will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all
agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that
space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect
protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It
will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people
still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the
default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80
years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be
more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long
long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and
Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That
means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every
child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in
First World countries. We have already released our software in
Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this
Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English
app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English
within half a year.
Anonymous says...
This means everything I've learned over the course of some 7 decades
probably won't be worth much. And this longevity curve...when we gain
two years of longevity for each year we live, seems like we'll go on
forever. Gee, my savings won't last that long. I'll have to go back
to work, but how can a 150 year old guy compete with youngsters for
the predicted scarce jobs? I'll have to live under a bridge
somewhere, and spend my waking hours holding out a tin cup for
imaginary bitcoins along a busy street where automated traffic will
never slow down enough for someone to donate.
the future is here !
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Guest_randy cohn_*
, May 24 2016 10:59 AM
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Guest_randy cohn_*
Guest_randy cohn_*
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Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:59 AM
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randolph cohn
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Posted 18 July 2017 - 06:24 AM
The Future Is Here! The Future Is Now. Buckle Up!
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times
faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare
airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large
amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey
office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will
be 3D printed.
Well, as a guy who works in 3d scanning/printing industry, that as the cheapest printers are cheap, printers, which can print with enough quality, size and a moderate number of materials is still expensive. About 3d scanning. Yes there is sense for iPhone, but scan quality is quite poor. However high quality professional 3d scanners like Faro or Artec are expensive for a common user.
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